Climate mitigation contribution of different CO2 price paths in the transport, building and industry sectors covered by the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG)

Within the scope of this project, it is modelled how different CO2 prices within the framework of the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) as well as further assumptions affect the achievement of the 2030 target. This is implemented by an iterative modelling of the sectors transport, industry, and buildings.
In this modelling approach, CO2 price paths in the BEHG are exogenously specified for the sector models. The starting point is the Climate Action Programme 2030 including all previously introduced climate and energy policy instruments. These and other assumptions remain unchanged compared to the assessment of the greenhouse gas mitigation effect of the Climate Action Programme 2030.
In addition to the choice of the CO2 price path, the sensitivities differ in terms of their planning horizon for new investments. In this regard, stakeholders may only take current CO2 prices into account when making their investment decision. However, the impact of planning horizons of up to 20 years is also examined. Furthermore, in some sensitivities an early replacement of investment goods (e.g., heating systems or vehicles), i.e., before the end of the lifetime, is assumed.
In six of the ten CO2 price sensitivities, the BEHG cap in 2030 (derived from the ESR reduction target of -38 % by 2030 compared to 2005 in effect at the time of modelling) is met. However, compliance with the maximum permissible quantity in the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) alone does not guarantee meeting permissible emissions under the EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) at the same time, as the ESR includes further emissions, such as emissions from livestock, waste management or F-gases.
In none of the sensitivities is the total permissible emission level according to the Federal Climate Change Act (KSG) in force since 2021 achieved. In two sensitivities, the buildings sector achieves its new KSG sector target for 2030. The transport and industry sectors, in contrast, do not achieve their new sector target in 2030 in any of the CO2 price sensitivities. Furthermore, it should be noted that the decrease in emissions in the industry, buildings and transport sectors is partly offset by a considerable increase in emissions from the energy sector, in particular due to an increased demand for electricity and district heating in public power plants and heating plants. Depending on the sensitivity, this effect means that up to 50 % of the emissions saved in the industry, buildings and transport sectors are additionally emitted in the energy sector.