Climate neutrality by 2040: What CO₂ reductions can Hamburg realistically expect?

With the “Zukunftsentscheid” referendum, Hamburg has brought forward its legally binding climate neutrality target to 2040. To provide a robust data basis along the way, a comprehensive projection report is being prepared.

🔎 At IREES GmbH, together with Fraunhofer ISI and on behalf of the Hamburg Ministry for Environment, Climate, Energy and Agriculture (BUKEA), we are modelling the expected development of CO₂ emissions up to 2040.

We examine which CO₂ reductions the existing climate protection measures of the federal government and the city are likely to achieve, and how large the remaining emissions gap will be.

Our methodological approach: rather than looking at theoretical potentials, we analyse how existing laws, funding programmes and energy price developments affect the actual investment behaviour of companies and households.

To do this, we model two pathways: a baseline scenario based on existing decisions, and an extended scenario including additional Hamburg-specific measures.

Another focus is on the social and economic impacts. In particular, we examine the costs of switching to fossil-free heating and mobility for lower-income households.

📊 The results are expected in the second half of 2027 and will provide a scientifically sound basis for updating Hamburg’s Climate Plan.

👉 Visit the project website