Greenhouse gas projections 2025

Are the political instruments sufficient for a climate-neutral building stock?

The official projection data for 2025 from the Federal Environment Agency has been published. We at IREES GmbH, together with the Oeko-Institut, have carried out the underlying calculations for the building sector.
Here are some insights to help put the results into context:

👎 In 2030, the building sector will fall short of the annual emission levels envisaged under the Climate Protection Act. The reasons for this are:
👉 Sales figures from 2024 show that even after the Building Energy Act came into force (65% rule), fossil fuel heating systems were still predominantly installed.
👉 Contrary to the assumption in the 2024 projections, it is therefore clear that building owners will not factor rising prices due to the fulfillment of RE quotas into their decisions to replace their heating systems.
👉 Lower budget in federal funding for efficient buildings leads to fewer energy-efficient renovations
👉 Updating the data basis based on the 2022 census leads to adjustments to the building typology and age distribution of heating systems

✍ Need for action?
The reduction of annual emissions in the building sector is heavily dependent on the availability of green gases due to the installation of fossil heating systems after 2029 (entry into force of Section §71 GEG). If these are not available, fossil natural gas will continue to be used. The projections also assume continuity in the subsidy budgets and cost reductions for heat pumps. These are prerequisites for emission reductions by 2045.

Here are the results in compact form:
Greenhouse gas projections 2025 – Results compact | Federal Environment Agency

And here is further material on assumptions and data:
Current greenhouse gas projections | Federal Environment Agency

The publication of the long version of the research consortium with further evaluations will follow soon.

IREES – RESEARCH FOR FUTURE 🌍🍃