Projection Report 2023 for Germany

According to Article 18 of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the governance system for the Energy Union and for climate protection, amending Regulations (EC) No 663/2009 and (EC) No 715/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council, and Section 10 (2) of the Federal Climate Protection Act.

The German Projection Report 2023 describes the projected development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany in a ‚With existing measures‘ Scenario (MMS) as well as in a ‚With additional Measures‘ Scenario (MWMS). The period covered is 2021 to 2050. The report follows the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action.For total GHG emissions (excluding land use, land use change and forestry), the MMS results in a projected reduction of 63 % from 1990 to 2030, and a reduction of 83 % is projected by 2050.
The MWMS projects a reduction of 65 % by 2030 and 87 % by 2050 compared to 1990. In the MMS the mitigation targets of the Federal Climate Change Act are projected to not be met by 2030. The cumulative deviation from the target is projected at 331million tons of CO2equivalent. Considerung also additional measures the cumulative deviation from the target is projected to be reduced to 194 million tons of CO2equivalent.
There are several main drivers of the projected emissions development: On the one hand, renewable energies are strongly expanded. For example, the renewable share of gross electricity consumption increases to over 80 % in both scenarios by 2030. On the other hand, energy efficiency and energy saving measures lead to significantly lower final and primary energy consumption. In addition, there are measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions not related to energy consumption.
In order to be able to better estimate deviations in the results due to changed assumptions, a total of six sensitivity analyses were carried out. In these, the parameters for economic growth, fuel and EU-ETS prices, BEHG prices (national carbon pricing) and the degree of biomass use were changed.