The projection report assesses the federal government’s climate protection measures by projecting greenhouse gas emissions in two scenarios. The With Measures Scenario (MMS) includes existing political instruments, and the With Further Measures Scenario (MWMS) also includes planned instruments.

IREES GmbH, together with the Oeko-Institut e.V., is responsible for modeling and estimating the development in the building sector, i.e. the heat supply in buildings.

Overall, the requirements of the Climate Protection Act cannot be achieved with the existing and planned political instruments. In the MMS, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 63% by 2030 and by 83% by 2050 compared to be reduced in 1990. The MWMS projects a reduction of 65% by 2030 and 87% by 2050.

In the building sector, there is a gap of 12 million t CO2eq in the MMS in 2030, climate neutrality in 2045 will be missed. The gap can be reduced in the MWMS by further instruments. However, this requires an ambitious design of the 65% rule in the GEG and a significant increase in the depth of renovation achieved.

Part of the project: Policy scenarios for climate protection XI – IREES GmbH

Project consortium: Oeko-Institut e.V., Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

To the publication: Projektionsbericht 2023 für Deutschland – IREES GmbH

To the list of IREES publications: PUBLIKATIONEN – IREES GmbH

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