Projection Report 2021 for Germany
The German Projection Report 2021 describes the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany in a co-action scenario in the period 2021 to 2040. The report follows the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the governance system for the Energy Union and for climate protection.
For total greenhouse gas emissions (excluding land use, land use change, and forestry), a 49% reduction results from 1990 to 2030, and a 67% reduction is achieved by 2040. Important drivers for this reduction are, among others, the decrease in coal-fired power generation within the framework of the Coal Electricity Termination Act, the CO2 pricing through the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, and the increase in renewable energies through the promotion within the framework of the Renewable Energies Act. In addition, the decreasing demand for heat in the building sector due to renovation measures and the expansion of electromobility also contribute to the reduction of emissions.
Furthermore, sensitivity analyses were carried out with regard to the assumptions on demographic and macroeconomic development as well as on GHG certificate prices. Significant effects on emissions can be expected, especially with higher EUA prices. In 2030, an assumed EUA price of about 60 €2016/EUA leads to 24 million t lower GHG emissions in the energy sector compared to an assumed EUA price of 30 €2016/EUA.