Long-term electricity demand in Brazil

Hourly and annual forecasts for Brazil up to 2050

Client

Energy suppliers in Brazil and the Pontificia Universidad Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

Duration March 2014 – August 2016

Background

Energy policy concepts and choices in Brazil reflect some of the world’s most urgent challenges, such as providing the population with full electricity access and coverage. This has been made possible with a series of policy efforts, investments and climate protection measures. The total demand for energy in Brazil has doubled since the late 1980s due to increasing economic activity, population growth and the emergence of a middle class. The challenge for Brazil in the coming years lies in providing an affordable supply of electricity within climate constraints (dry periods) while taking account of the rising demand for energy, mainly from residential buildings and industry. Policies for energy-efficient household appliances and cross-cutting technologies for the industry, trades, commerce and services sectors are set to gain importance in the coming years, and a greater understanding of the dynamics of electricity demand in the long term will benefit policy and investment decisions.

Tasks of IREES

  • Transfer the FORECAST model of bottom-up analyses of the annual electricity demand across sectors and the ELOAD model for hourly load curve analysis to PUC-Rio and enterprises.

  • Develop a bottom-up model for energy demand in Brazil together with PUC-Rio by simulating hourly and annual electricity demand with the option to build a set of scenarios for energy efficiency policy measures.

  • Provide training on the models and their use and documentation with selected PhD and Masters students in Brazil.

  • Working with PUC-Rio, develop the Brazilian Demand Model, using the FORECAST/ELOAD modelling platform.

  • Produce a technology dataset for Germany as a starting point for modelling industry demand in Brazil.

  • Provide support for data input, scenario definition and analysis of the results.

Project partner

  • Fraunhofer ISI

  • TEP Energy